How Many Registered Voters Does The Republican Party Have
Overall, 48% of all registered voters identify equally Democrats or lean Autonomous compared with 44% who identify every bit Republican or lean toward the GOP.
While partisan preferences among all voters are narrowly divide, there are broad gaps in leanings among demographic groups. There are fundamental differences in how men and women, immature and onetime, whites, blacks and Hispanics describe their partisan leanings. In many cases, persistent differences accept grown wider in recent years.
Wide race, gender differences in partisan leaning
At that place are wide differences in partisan affiliation betwixt white, blackness and Hispanic registered voters. Partisan differences between these groups have been relatively stable in contempo years, but are wider than they were in 2008 – a relative high point in Autonomous affiliation – when white voters were less Republican in their partisan orientation than today.
Overall, 35% of white registered voters place as independent, while about as many (36%) identify as Republican and fewer (26%) place as Democratic.
Partisan identification among whites is trivial inverse since 2012. Since 2008, however, the share of white voters who place equally Democrats has declined five points, while the share who identify as contained has increased four points. There has been a slight two-signal increment in the share identifying as Republican.
The Republican Party holds a sizable advantage in leaned party affiliation among white voters. This year, 54% of white registered voters place equally Republican or lean toward the GOP, while only 39% chapter with the Democratic Party or lean Autonomous. While that represents only a modest shift since 2012, when Republicans led by a 12-point margin (52%-40%), in 2008 leaned partisan alignment amongst whites was closely divided (46% Republican, 44% Democratic). The electric current xv-indicate GOP edge in leaned partisan affiliation is equally wide an advantage for the Republican Party among white voters every bit Pew Inquiry Center has measured over the past 24 years.
Trends in party affiliation among black voters accept been largely stable over contempo years. Overall, 87% of blackness voters identify with the Autonomous Party or lean Autonomous, compared with merely 7% who place as Republican or lean Republican.
Amidst Hispanic voters, the Democratic Party holds a 63% to 27% reward over the GOP in leaned party identification. Every bit with black voters, trends in party affiliation amidst Hispanic voters have changed little in recent years.
Based on 2016 surveys, 66% of Asian registered voters place with the Autonomous Political party or lean Autonomous, compared with 27% who place as Republican or lean Republican. The information for party identification among Asians are based on interviews conducted in English.
When information technology comes to gender and partisan preferences, the Republican Party has a pregnant advantage in leaned party identification among men, an edge that has widened in recent years, while the Autonomous Party holds a large advantage amid women.
By 51% to 41%, more men identify every bit Republican or lean toward the GOP than identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This marks a major change from 2008, when the Democratic Party briefly enjoyed a slight edge in leaned party identification amongst men (46%-44%). The current 10-point edge held past the Republican Party also is significantly higher than the four-signal edge the GOP held in 2012.
More than half of women (54%) identify equally Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 38% who say they are Republican or lean Republican. Democrats take held a consistent advantage among women in leaned party identification in Pew Research Center surveys dating to 1992. The current sixteen-point border is as large equally information technology has been over the past several years, but somewhat smaller than the 21-signal advantage the Democratic Party held among women in 2008.
Amongst white men, the Republican Party holds a wide 61% to 32% advantage in leaned political party identification. The GOP reward among white men is larger than it was in both 2008 (51%-39%) and 2012 (56%-36%).
Among white women, about as many registered voters identify equally Republican or lean toward the Republican Party (47%) equally say they place as Democrats or lean Democratic (46%). Leaned political party identification among white women has fluctuated over the past decade: in 2008, the Democratic Party held a 49% to 42% reward in leaned party identification; in 2012, the Republican Party held a 48%-44% edge.
Democrats agree broad advantage among college graduates
Trends in partisan identification among those with different levels of educational activity have undergone major changes over the last ii decades. Less-educated voters – one time a strong Democratic bloc – have moved toward the Republican Party, while higher graduates have moved toward the Democratic Party.
In 1992, Democrats held an 18-point reward in leaned partisan identification among those with no more than a loftier schoolhouse degree (55% vs. 37%). This Democratic advantage persisted through the 1990s and early 2000s but has evaporated over the class of the last eight years.
In 2008, the Democratic edge in leaned party amalgamation amongst those with no higher feel was 17 points: 53% said they identified every bit Democrats or leaned Democratic, compared with 36% who identified as Republican or leaned Republican. Today, the motion picture is dramatically different: 46% now identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with virtually as many (45%) who identify as Republican or lean Republican.
Patterns in party affiliation are the opposite amidst higher graduates. The Democratic Political party currently holds a 53% to 41% reward in leaned party identification among voters with a higher degree or more. In 1992, 49% of higher graduates preferred the GOP, while 45% affiliated with the Democratic Party. The Republican Party began to lose ground amid college graduates in the second one-half of George West. Bush-league's first term, and by 2008, the Democratic Party held a ten-bespeak edge in leaned party affiliation among college graduates (51% to 41%). The Autonomous advantage narrowed by the midterm election yr of 2010, merely has reemerged over the last six years.
The partisan preferences of voters with some college experience, but no caste, are divided. In 2016, near equally many identify as Republican or lean Republican (46%) as identify as Democrats or lean Democratic (45%). In 2008 – the Democratic Political party's recent loftier-water marking in party affiliation – Democrats had a 10-point advantage in leaned party identification among those with some higher feel. That border was not long-lasting and disappeared by 2010.
The Republican Party's gains amidst those with no college experience are particularly pronounced among white voters. Currently, 59% of whites with no college experience identify as Republican or lean Republican, compared with just 33% who identify equally Democrats or lean Democratic. This is a dramatic shift from 2007, when the Democratic Party held a slight 46% to 42% border among non-college whites in partisan amalgamation.
Past contrast, white voters with at to the lowest degree a college caste are evenly divided in their leaned partisan affiliation (48% Democrat vs. 47% Republican). The residue of leaned party affiliation among white college graduates is virtually the aforementioned as information technology was in 2008 and 2012, just is less Republican than in 2010. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, white college graduates were significantly more likely to lean toward the Republican than Autonomous Party.
The GOP holds a 21-point advantage today in partisan affiliation among white voters with some college experience but no degree (57% to 36%). The Republican Political party has held an border in leaned party affiliation amongst white voters with some higher experience over each of the final 24 years. The current GOP advantage among whites with some college experience is comparable to the 19-signal edge the party held in 2012 and larger than the five-point border it held in 2008.
In 1992, an identical 44% of white men and white women who had non graduated from college identified as Republican or leaned Republican. Today, white men without a college degree (65%) are much more likely than white women without a college degree (51%) to identify equally or lean Republican. The current gap betwixt the ii groups in Republican amalgamation is every bit broad equally it has been in the past quarter-century.
The gap in Republican amalgamation among college educated white men and white women, by contrast, is most the same today every bit it has been over the grade of the last 24 years. Overall, 54% of white men with a college caste identify as Republican or lean Republican, compared with 41% of white women with at least a college degree. The current 13-point gap in Republican affiliation between the two groups is the same every bit information technology was in 1992.
The overall Democratic advantage among voters who accept graduated from college is driven in large office by the potent Autonomous tilt of those with postgraduate experience. Nearly six-in-ten (59%) registered voters with postgraduate experience identify with the Democratic Party or lean Autonomous, compared with far fewer (36%) who place equally Republican or lean Republican. The Democratic advantage among those with postgraduate feel began to emerge in George W. Bush's starting time term and is currently as wide equally it has been in Pew Enquiry Heart surveys dating to 1992.
Among those who have received a college caste but do not have whatsoever postgraduate experience, the Democratic Party holds a more small edge: Half place every bit Democrats or lean Democratic, while 44% identify as Republican or lean toward the GOP.
Amid white voters with postgraduate experience, the Democratic Party has a 54% to 42% advantage in leaned political party identification. This is the but educational group amid whites where the Democratic Party holds a pregnant edge over the GOP. Amongst whites with a higher degree but no postgraduate feel, 50% identify with the Republican Party or lean that mode, compared with 45% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
Party identification across generations
Amongst Millennials, the youngest adult generation (today ages 18-35), 41% identify equally independents, compared with 34% who identify as Democrats and simply 22% who place as Republicans. The share of Millennials who place as independent is upwards eight points since 2008.
On leaned party affiliation, however, Millennials have a stiff Democratic orientation. By 57% to 36% more Millennial voters place as Democrats or lean Democratic than identify as Republican or lean Republican.
The partisan leanings of Gen Xers and Babe Boomers are more than closely divided. Overall, somewhat more Gen Xers identify every bit Democrats or lean Autonomous (48%) than place equally Republicans or lean Republican (42%). Among Baby Boomers, the GOP holds a slight 49% to 45% edge in leaned party amalgamation. Gen Xers and Baby Boomers accept been relatively split in their partisan leanings for much of the past 24 years, though the Democratic Party briefly held a adequately broad reward amongst both groups between 2006 and 2008.
Among members of the Silent Generation, which includes voters who are today betwixt the ages of 71 and 88, the Republican Party has opened a wide advantage in leaned party affiliation over the past several years. By 53% to 40% more members of the Silent Generation identify as or lean Republican than Democratic. This is the largest advantage for the GOP among Silent Generation voters in Pew Enquiry surveys dating to 1992.
Millennials now match Baby Boomers as the generation that represents the largest number of eligible voters in the country. While Millennials are a large and diverse cohort, there continues to be no sign of differences in partisanship amid younger and older member of the generation. Similar shares of Millennials ages xviii-25 (58%) and 26-35 (56%) identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party.
Amidst white voters, as many Millennials place as Republican or lean Republican (47%) equally say they place as Democrats or lean Democratic (47%). Amid all older generations, the GOP has a significant advantage in leaned party affiliation amidst white voters, including a 24-betoken edge amongst white voters in the Silent generation.
Among not-white voters, the Democratic Party holds a wide advantage in leaned party affiliation and there is niggling deviation in patterns beyond generations. Roughly seven-in-ten non-white voters in each generation identify every bit Democrats or lean Autonomous.
Party identification across religious groups
White evangelical Protestants – long a solidly Republican grouping – have go fifty-fifty more probable to identify with the Republican Party in contempo years. Currently, about three-quarters of white evangelicals (76%) place with the GOP or lean Republican, compared with just 20% who are Democrats or lean Autonomous. The share affiliating with the GOP is upwardly 12 points since 2008, including a five-indicate uptick since 2012.
The partisan leanings of white mainline Protestants today are like to those of white voters overall. By 55% to 37%, more than affiliate with the GOP than Democratic Party. In 2008 – a recent high-signal in Autonomous affiliation – white mainline Protestants were divided: Every bit many aligned themselves with the Democratic Party as the Republican Party (45% each). The Republican Party regained a meaning reward in leaned partisan affiliation amid mainline Protestants by 2010 and the current 18-point GOP edge is as big as it's been in the last two decades.
Black Protestants remain solidly Autonomous in their partisan orientation and there has been little alter in their affiliation over the past few decades. Today, about nine-in-10 (88%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, while but 6% say they chapter with the GOP.
Catholics are split in their partisan preferences: About as many affiliate with the GOP (47%) as the Democratic Party (46%). The Democratic Political party has traditionally enjoyed an advantaged in leaned party amalgamation among all Catholics, but the GOP has fabricated gains in contempo years: 2013 marked the get-go time in about 2 decades that Catholics were no more than likely to affiliate with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party.
The shift among all Catholics toward the GOP has been driven by white Catholics. Nearly six-in-ten white Cosmic registered voters (58%) now identify every bit Republican or lean Republican, compared with 37% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. White Catholics are 17 points more likely to affiliate with the GOP than they were in 2008 and eight points more probable than there were in 2012.
Hispanic Catholics remain overwhelmingly Democratic in their partisan preferences: Nearly seven-in-10 (69%) place as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Political party. Most a quarter (23%) of Hispanic Catholics chapter with the GOP.
The share of Mormons identifying as Republican has edged downwards slightly in the concluding four years. Currently, almost half of Mormons (48%) draw themselves as Republicans, while 35% say they are independents and simply xiii% identify as Democrats. In 2012, when Paw Romney was the GOP nominee for President, 61% of Mormons identified as Republicans.
On leaned party affiliation, 69% of Mormons place equally Republican or lean toward the GOP. This also marks a slight pass up from 2012 when 78% of Mormons affiliated with or leaned toward the Republican Party.
Jewish registered voters continue to strongly prefer the Autonomous Party over the GOP. Overall, 74% of Jewish voters identify equally Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 24% who place as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. The share of Jews who identify every bit Democrats or lean Autonomous has grown slightly over the by few years, though the balance of leaned party amalgamation among Jewish voters is about the same equally it was in 2008.
Among voters who exercise not affiliate with a religious group, 45% identify as independent, compared with 39% who identify as Democrats and just 12% who identify equally Republican.
Religiously unaffiliated voters continue to be overwhelmingly Democratic in their orientation. Virtually two-thirds (66%) place as Democrats or lean Democratic, compared with 25% who identify or lean Republican. In 1994, the Democratic Party held a somewhat smaller 52% to 33% edge amidst religiously unaffiliated voters.
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/09/13/2-party-affiliation-among-voters-1992-2016/
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